We continue to read reporting claiming that the Justice Department will block Google’s deal with Apple to be the default search engine on iPhones. As someone who has worked in Tech for 42 years and specialized in search engines for 27 years, I think this is misguided – here is why:
#1 What does it mean to be “the default search engine” on iPhones? It simply means that a query (not a url) entered into the address bar of Safari, goes to Google.
According to Statista: as of October 2024, Google Chrome holds over 49% of the mobile internet browser market in the United States, while Apple’s Safari has approximately 45.31%. Furthermore, only a shocking 4.5% of iPhone users prefer chrome over Safari. This is where the heart of the Justice Department case firms up. They point to these statistics over-n-over as proof of Google’s monopoly (that part is not in doubt – of course Google is a monopoly).
The Govt assumes that if they require Apple to open up Safari to other search engines, that some how Google monopoly would magically vanish by sure force of numbers. Lets stop and think about this a bunch:
People know how to use these devices. The depth and number of apps people are using on a daily basis, from social media, to banking, to hotel, airline, to paying their monthly rent is a very rich ecosystem. This is not 2005 where people stumbled around blindly using the web. People know how to use these phones.
On August 5th, Judge Amit Mehta ruled in the case of United States of America v. Google, saying, “…the court reaches the following conclusion: Google is a monopolist, and it has acted as one to maintain its monopoly. It has violated Section 2 of the Sherman Act.” – Verge
If the Govt tells Apple to open up Safari to some sort of default choice screen, how many of these people are going to choose a different search engine?
In fact, the week after that would happen, it would be how to set your iPhone back to Google week on the internet. FAQ’s, Webinars, and TikToks by the thousands would be made teaching ma-and-pa kettle how to set Safari back to Google. The week after this – Google traffic would be *up*.
#2 Remember when Google pushed Chrome on Google? It was almost impossible to use Google services without using Chrome. They shoved that thing down our throats!
Within a week after Safari giving the choice screen, every iOS user on the planet that used Google, would see promotions designed to teach them how to:
- Set Google as their default engine.
- Install Chrome. (Chrome usage on iOS would have to go up). So much so, you almost would not be able to use Google on an iPhone with Safari.
Even The Verge offered brought this up a year ago:
Google could use its ultra-popular apps like Gmail, Maps, and YouTube to promote Chrome and the Google app, diverting people away from Safari and potentially submarining the value of Apple’s deal with any other search engine. In that sense, not only was the Google / Apple deal mutually beneficial but it may have also been something like a peace treaty.
The result would be, Google would be able to push – no – demand iOS users install Chrome. This might not immediately mean Google can make up for not being the default, but not having to pay Apple for exclusivity rights to the tune of $20 billion a year, means Google will have fresh incentive and fresh capital to push its own products onto iOS and maintain the Monopoly.
Getting rid of the default agreement with Apple would almost be doing Google a favor.
related: DOJ wants Google to sell off Chrome?
As the CEO and founder of Pubcon Inc., Brett Tabke has been instrumental in shaping the landscape of online marketing and search engine optimization. His journey in the computer industry has spanned over three decades and has made him a pioneering force behind digital evolution. Full Bio
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